SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Field research will be carried out in the constituency at the Polling Booth level.
The various phases of the study will be:
• Phase I
The first stage of sampling involves the selection of Assembly Constituencies. In national surveys they are stratified according to the states in which they lie, and the unit of sampling is the state in all surveys. Assembly Constituencies are sampled through the Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS) sampling method.
• Phase II
The second stage is to sample Polling Stations within each sampled constituency. Polling Stations are again sampled by employing the PPS method. The PPS method ensures that locations with larger population are sampled, and the underlying assumption is that locations with larger population will be more representative of the diversity within the universe.
• Phase III
After sampling the Polling Stations, the final stage is that of sampling respondents, who are selected from the Electoral Rolls provided by the Election Commission. Respondents are sampled by the Systematic Random Sampling (SRS) method, which is based on a fixed interval ratio between two respondents. A Sampled Respondent’s List for each Polling Station is prepared, which is a comprehensive list of selected respondents with their complete name, address, age and gender. Field investigators who are trained to conduct face-to-face interviews in a rigorous training workshop go and interview the listed respondents.
FACE TO FACE INTERVIEWS WITH THE HELP OF QUESTIONNAIRE
In all surveys, interviews are conducted face-to-face using a standard-structured questionnaire. All interviews are conducted in local dialects. After the data is collected, rigorous contingency checks are run, after which it is analysed using SPSS (Statistical Software for Social Sciences).
The questionnaire will focus on the following parameters:
1. Developmental aspects:
a. Assessment of satisfaction level of the constituents from their present MP/MLA
b. Mapping of preferences of voters need from their state and central government
c. Finding local issues, grievances, and demands which can influence election
d. Comparison between present and previous state and central governments
2. Image of the Leaders
a. About leader’s behaviour with the common people
b. Way of working
c. What kind of leader constituencies want
d. Whom does the constituencies admire and prefer most from each party
3. Image of the Parties
a. Most active party in the local area, state and centre
b. Most promising party in the local area, state and centre
c. Satisfaction of present party’s within the state govt. and at central government level
d. Party Preference for next election
e. Worst policy made by the previous government which can be an issue in the election.
4. Opinion Poll
a. At present, public preference about all given candidates
b. Whom voter thinks best suitable candidate for their benefits
c. Who is most reliable candidate
d. Feedback about all the candidates will be managed booths wise
5. Important Issues
a. Issue which does matter most for the villagers of each village
b. What kind of national issues matters for voters of your constituency
c. What is their opinion about the big issues like reservation, mandir-masjid
d. Price hike of daily use commodities, unemployment etc.
6. Party Network
a. Identification of influential people of each and every major party at the booth level
b. Arranging the data base of party worker at block and Vidhan Sabha level
c. Collecting Mobile numbers of the influential people of each and every village
7. Caste Equation
a. Approximate number of people of each and every caste at the booth level
b. Approximate no of people of different religion
c. Strategy suitable according to the social engineering
8. Overall Ranking and Satisfaction
a. Personal ranking in comparison to all other leader of the constituency
b. Satisfaction level from the leader’s contribution
Note: Due to Delimitation there is major change in the demography of the constituency so we make adjustments of the booths and we will assess our position where we stand in new geographical location.
ANALYSIS
The raw data from the field is compiled and a detailed research to correlate various factors will be conducted with respect to past election results. A comprehensive analysis will be carried out and focus areas will be shortlisted to be taken up further. This analysis will divide the booths in four groups, i.e., strong booths, weak booths, threatened booths, and opportune booths. A comparison between the strength of the individual vis-à-vis strength of the parties will also be done.